Cancer rates are recorded meticulously in many countries using national and regional databases, but long-term trends in gastric cancer rates have rarely been reported from a global perspective using pooled data. In this study the past temporal trends (1988-2012) in gastric cancer incidence rates from 108 cancer registries in 43 countries were studied and used to predict future trends (2012-2030).
The analysis of the registries showed persistent decreasing trends in gastric cancer incidence rates worldwide, with an overall reduction of 2% per year. This trend will continue or remain stable until 2030 in the vast majority of countries except for Ecuador and Lithuania, where gastric cancer incidence rates will experience substantially increasing trends. Lifestyle changes including reduction in smoking and improvement in diet probably contributed to the decrease in gastric cancer rates as well as Helicobacter pylori prevalence decrease. However, gastric cancer still represents a major cancer burden worldwide, and the large number of gastric cancer cases worldwide may still call for further lifestyle interventions in terms of smoking and diet and massive efforts for H pylori screening and treatment in high prevalence countries.
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